2013 Prospect Review by John Lapham
Welcome to the 2013
Down on the Farm Report. This is the second one of these reports
that I’ve compiled for the TBBL and I’d forgotten just how much work it
is. The last time I compiled a bunch of top 100 lists to come up with
an overall score for each team. I tried something different this year.
I relied on fewer sources, primarily Baseball America and Baseball HQ’s
Minor League Baseball Analyst, and I gave every prospect on every
team a score from 40-100 in five point increments. The score reflects
the following three factors, listed in order of importance: talent
ceiling, talent floor, and highest level of competition (or, in other
words, how close the player is to helping the major league roster). To
score 100, a player would need to be on the brink of reaching the majors
and demonstrated a hall-of-fame type ceiling with a low risk of
failure. Dylan Bundy and Jurickson Profar were the closest to getting a
100 but in the end I gave both players a 95. I also decided to give
each system a letter grade based on my overall impression of the talent,
depth, and value in the system. Value is a grade that I assigned based
on how many quality prospects a team had at premium positions, such as
c, ss, and potential #1 starters. These are the players that are always
in the shortest supply in this league and therefore have the most value
in the trade market. The teams are ranked by overall scores but you
will notice some inconsistency between the scores and the overall
grade. This is the result of the fact that I could not quite figure out
how to reflect the value grade in the numerical scores.
Team |
Score |
Overall |
Talent |
Depth |
Value |
Comments |
Glenview Flyers |
900 |
A |
A |
A |
A |
Deep and talented system. Dipped into
the amateur ranks in this year’s draft, picking up two high
school hitters: Clint Frazier, of, and Jon Denney, c.
Best of the Best: Shelby Miller,
sp, Javier Baez, ss, and Jonathan Singleton, 1b.
Keep an Eye on: Clint Coulter, c,
is a raw defensive prospect but has great makeup and the makings
of a fantastic bat. If he can stick at c and continue to
develop the bat, he could be an impact player. |
Gotham CityHawks |
880 |
A |
A- |
A |
A- |
Outstanding depth with no less than 11
prospects who may be 1st division major league
starters, but few of them are sure bets to become perennial
all-stars. The relative lack of ultra-elite talent is the
reason for the A- grade, despite the very high overall score.
Best of the Best: Oswaldo Arcia,
of, Gregory Polanco, of, and Alan Webster, sp.
Keep an Eye on: Taylor Jungmann.
The sinker-baller is still working on finding a third reliable
pitch. Could end up being a very reliable workhorse starter. |
Beartooth Bitteroots |
870 |
A |
A |
A |
A |
Proud owner of the best sp prospect in
baseball, Dylan Bundy, and great overall depth at SP, 3b, and c,
with several potential future all-stars.
Best of the Best: Dylan Bundy,
sp, Zach Wheeler, sp, and Jake Marisnick, cf.
Keep an Eye on: Blake Swihart, c.
He got off to a rocky start in A-ball but still has all the
tools to be an all-star caliber catcher. His value could
skyrocket in the next couple of years. |
Newark Eagles |
855 |
A- |
A |
A |
B+ |
Another ridiculously deep and talented
system with particularly impressive starting pitching and
infield depth. System lacks catching prospects and has only
one of, Jorge Soler.
Best of the Best: Anthony
Rendon, 3b, Jameson Taillon, sp, Nick Castellanos, 3b, and
Carlos Martinez, sp.
Keep an Eye on: Billy Hamilton
has game-changing speed (155 sb last season!) but is rough
defensively at ss. May move to CF where his speed will likely
erase any deficits in reading fly balls. |
Osama’s Camel Sodomy Camp |
855 |
A- |
A- |
A |
B+ |
A solid system with outstanding depth at
SP and one of the best hitting prospects in the game, Miguel
Sano.
Best of the Best: Miguel Sano,
3b, Yasiel Puig, of, Addison Russell, ss, and Yordano Ventura,
sp.
Keep an Eye on: Cuban defector
Yasiel Puig has all the tools to be an elite outfielder. |
West Orange Panthers |
825 |
A- |
A |
A- |
B+ |
Very deep system with plenty of
infielders and pitchers but somewhat lacking in outfield depth.
Best of the Best: Gerrit Cole,
sp, Trevor May, sp, Arodys Vizcaino, sp, and Cory Seager, 3b.
Keep an Eye on: Arodys Vizcaino
lost 2012 to Tommy John surgery but he could come back stronger
than ever and he had electric stuff before the surgery.
|
Mad City Paddlers |
805 |
A |
A |
A- |
A |
This system has loads of high-end talent
and players that are ready to contribute at key positions.
Best of the Best: Will Myers, of,
Mike Zunino, c, Aaron Sanchez, sp, Jared Cosart, sp, and Archie
Bradley, sp.
Keep an Eye on: Roberto Osuna is
a very young pitcher from Mexico who had a great debut in the US
last year. Terrific stuff, pitchability, and maturity may lead
to the top of a rotation someday. |
Emerald City Bombers |
780 |
A |
A |
A- |
A |
Another great system with plenty of top
prospects nearing the majors.
Best of the Best: Francisco
Lindor, ss, Matt Barnes, sp, Carlos Correa, ss, James Paxton sp,
and Mike Olt, 1b.
Keep an Eye on: James Paxton
possesses a nasty arsenal that produces very high strikeout
rates. With even a slight improvement in control, he could
become an ace. |
Houston Oil Barons |
770 |
A- |
A |
A |
B+ |
Loaded with top-tier young talent,
including several amateurs taken in this year’s TBBL draft.
Don’t be fooled by this team’s score, it reflects the relative
youth of the system more than anything else.
Best of the Best: Mark Appel, sp,
Byron Buxton, of, Bubba Starling, of, and Brian Goodwin, of.
Keep an Eye on: Kevin Gausman,
sp, has been overshadowed by fellow Oriole prospect Dylan Bundy
but his stuff is nearly as good. If he finds a little more
consistency, he could be an ace. |
California Volcanoes |
755 |
A- |
A- |
A- |
A- |
Ho-hum, just another great minor league
system in this league. If you’ve been wondering why the draft
seems to be getting shallower every year, it’s because so many
teams are drafting top prospects at younger and younger ages.
This is just one of several teams that dipped into the high
school ranks for at least one draft pick this year.
Best of the Best: Oscar Taveras,
of, Jose Fernandez, sp, Taylor Guerrieri, sp, and Kaleb Cowart,
3b.
Keep an Eye on: Taylor Guerrieri
dominated low-A in his first year in the league. Nasty sinking
FB that produces lots of swings and misses and a high GB rate to
boot. That’s a rare and devastating combination. He looks like
another ace in the making to me. |
Stone Mountain Confederates |
750 |
A- |
B+ |
A |
A- |
Nice catching and starting pitching
depth in this system. D’Arnaud looks ready to move quickly into
the first division of catchers in the league.
Best of the Best: Travis
D’Arnaud, c and JR Graham, sp.
Keep an Eye on: Tyler Austin
looks like one of those players who contribute in so many
consistent ways that he ends up undervalued. |
Colorado Gladiators |
725 |
B+ |
B+ |
A |
B |
Another team that made a big investment
in amateur players in this year’s TBBL draft. If Austin
Meadows, of, and Ryne Stanek, sp, develop as expected, this team
may also move up the ranks quickly.
Best of the Best: Max Fried, sp,
and Alberto Almora, of.
Keep an Eye on: Dan Vogelbach,
1b, has the huge power potential you would expect from a man
this size but he also makes pretty consistent contact. Lack of
speed limits his future to 1b but he has more than enough bat
for the position. |
Jersey Damage, Inc. |
640 |
B+ |
A- |
B |
A |
Elite talent at premium positions almost
makes up for a slightly shallower system than the elite systems
in the league.
Best of the Best: Gary Sanchez,
c, Xander Bogaerts, ss, and Taijuan Walker, sp.
Keep an Eye on: Trevor Story made
great strides last year and while not as flashy as some of the
other elite ss prospects in the league, he has the full package
of skills you want in a ss, including decent power potential. |
Philadelphia Smackdown |
560 |
B |
B+ |
B- |
B+ |
Not as deep as the top systems but the
crown jewel is top prospect, Jurickson Profar, ss. Yet another
system investing heavily in amateurs in this year’s draft,
selecting Kris Bryant, 3b, and Austin Wilson, of.
Best of the Best: Jurisckson
Profar, ss, Lucas Giolito, sp, and Adalberto Mondesi, ss.
Keep an Eye on: Adalberto
Mondesi, ss, the very young son of former MLB outfielder Raul
Mondesi, had an impressive debut and has an extremely exciting
skill set with plenty of room for growth. Given the brick-like
physique of his father, I’ll be shocked if he sticks at
shortstop, but he probably has the bat to play anywhere. |
San Antonio Saints |
495 |
B- |
B- |
B- |
B- |
The Saints have a fair number of
high-floor prospects but not as many high-ceiling prospects as
the top systems in the league.
Best of the Best: Josh Bell, of,
and Michael Wacha, sp
Keep an Eye on: Stryker Trahan,
c, has great power potential, not to mention one of the best
names in baseball. He also has a strong arm but will need to
improve his overall catching skills to stick at the position.
If he does, he could be an elite offensive catcher. |
Florida Devils |
475 |
C+ |
B |
C |
C |
FLA has several top pitching prospects
but the cupboard is somewhat bare when it comes to hitters.
Best of the Best: Gerrit Cole,
sp, and Zach Lee, sp.
Keep an Eye on: Chris Archer
strikes me as one those slow-developing pitchers who may take a
couple years longer than average to reach his full potential.
There still may be an ace in the making here. |
Los Angeles Halos |
470 |
C+ |
B+ |
C- |
C |
Despite the obvious mascot clash, the
Halos’ system would make a nice complement for the Devils’. The
Halos have a number of top-tier hitting prospects but are thin
in the pitching department.
Best of the Best: Kyle Zimmer,
sp, Michael Choice, of, and Courtney Hawkins, of.
Keep an Eye on: Jorge Alfaro, c,
has a plus power but can flail at times. Solid catching skills
will give him the time he needs to develop his batting skills.
Yet another potentially great catcher in the minors right now. |
San Francisco Seals |
445 |
C |
C |
C |
C |
No future superstars here but several
potential regulars.
Best of the Best: Jose Iglesias,
ss, and Chris Withrow, sp.
Keep an Eye on: Neftali Soto, 1b,
has huge power potential but a lack of plate discipline and
limited defensive options cloud his future. Currently blocked
in MLB by Joey Votto. |
Kentucky Wildcats |
435 |
C |
B- |
C- |
C |
Nice collection of mid-level talent and
a potential ace in Trevor Bauer.
Best of the Best: Trevor Bauer,
sp, and Dorsys Paulino, ss.
Keep an Eye on: Robert
Stephenson, sp, has terrific stuff and a developing repertoire
of pitches. If he continues developing his off-speed offerings
and stays healthy, he could be a top-of-the-rotation starter. |
Fort Wayne Komets |
405 |
C |
B- |
C |
C |
Shallow system with a couple of top-tier
pitchers.
Best of the Best: Trevor
Rosenthal, sp, and Jose Campos, sp.
Keep an Eye on: Matt Adams, 1b,
has been a consistently productive player in the minors but
opportunities for a full-time gig are running out. |
Smith Mills Mammoths |
375 |
C- |
C- |
C- |
C- |
Tyler Skaggs and Sonny Gray looks like
solid mid-rotation starters, and Christian Colon looks to be a
productive if not spectacular middle infielder.
Best of the Best: Tyler Skaggs,
sp, and Christian Colon, ss.
Keep an Eye on: Yorman Rodriguez,
of, has all the tools to be great but needs to find the skills
to get the most out of his tools. If he does, he could be an
all-star. |
Lincoln Tunnel Rats |
200 |
NRI |
|
|
|
NRI stands for “Not really interested.”
Keep an Eye on: Avisail Garcia
arrived ahead of schedule and has an impressive set of tools but
poor plate discipline could undercut his production. |
Moon Raiders |
160 |
NRI |
|
|
|
NRI stands for “Not really interested.”
Keep an Eye on: Bruce Rondon has
the stuff to close but the jury is still out if he has the
makeup for the job. |
Fresno Grizzlies |
0 |
NRI |
|
|
|
NRI stands for “Not really interested.” |
|