2013 Prospect Review by John Lapham

Welcome to the 2013 Down on the Farm Report.  This is the second one of these reports that I’ve compiled for the TBBL and I’d forgotten just how much work it is.  The last time I compiled a bunch of top 100 lists to come up with an overall score for each team.  I tried something different this year.  I relied on fewer sources, primarily Baseball America and Baseball HQ’s Minor League Baseball Analyst, and I gave every prospect on every team a score from 40-100 in five point increments.  The score reflects the following three factors, listed in order of importance: talent ceiling, talent floor, and highest level of competition (or, in other words, how close the player is to helping the major league roster).   To score 100, a player would need to be on the brink of reaching the majors and demonstrated a hall-of-fame type ceiling with a low risk of failure.  Dylan Bundy and Jurickson Profar were the closest to getting a 100 but in the end I gave both players a 95.  I also decided to give each system a letter grade based on my overall impression of the talent, depth, and value in the system.  Value is a grade that I assigned based on how many quality prospects a team had at premium positions, such as c, ss, and potential #1 starters.  These are the players that are always in the shortest supply in this league and therefore have the most value in the trade market.  The teams are ranked by overall scores but you will notice some inconsistency between the scores and the overall grade.  This is the result of the fact that I could not quite figure out how to reflect the value grade in the numerical scores. 

 

Team

Score

Overall

Talent

Depth

Value

Comments

Glenview Flyers

900

A

A

A

A

Deep and talented system.  Dipped into the amateur ranks in this year’s draft, picking up two high school hitters: Clint Frazier, of, and Jon Denney, c.

 

Best of the Best:  Shelby Miller, sp, Javier Baez, ss, and Jonathan Singleton, 1b.

 

Keep an Eye on: Clint Coulter, c, is a raw defensive prospect but has great makeup and the makings of a fantastic bat.  If he can stick at c and continue to develop the bat, he could be an impact player.

Gotham CityHawks

880

A

A-

A

A-

Outstanding depth with no less than 11 prospects who may be 1st division major league starters, but few of them are sure bets to become perennial all-stars.  The relative lack of ultra-elite talent is the reason for the A- grade, despite the very high overall score.

 

Best of the Best:  Oswaldo Arcia, of, Gregory Polanco, of, and Alan Webster, sp.

 

Keep an Eye on: Taylor Jungmann.  The sinker-baller is still working on finding a third reliable pitch.  Could end up being a very reliable workhorse starter.

Beartooth Bitteroots

870

A

A

A

A

Proud owner of the best sp prospect in baseball, Dylan Bundy, and great overall depth at SP, 3b, and c, with several potential future all-stars.

 

Best of the Best:  Dylan Bundy, sp, Zach Wheeler, sp, and Jake Marisnick, cf.

 

Keep an Eye on: Blake Swihart, c. He got off to a rocky start in A-ball but still has all the tools to be an all-star caliber catcher.   His value could skyrocket in the next couple of years.

Newark Eagles

855

A-

A

A

B+

Another ridiculously deep and talented system with particularly impressive starting pitching and infield depth.   System lacks catching prospects and has only one of, Jorge Soler.

 

Best of the Best:  Anthony Rendon, 3b, Jameson Taillon, sp, Nick Castellanos, 3b, and Carlos Martinez, sp.

 

Keep an Eye on: Billy Hamilton has game-changing speed (155 sb last season!) but is rough defensively at ss.  May move to CF where his speed will likely erase any deficits in reading fly balls.

Osama’s Camel Sodomy Camp

855

A-

A-

A

B+

A solid system with outstanding depth at SP and one of the best hitting prospects in the game, Miguel Sano.

 

Best of the Best:  Miguel Sano, 3b, Yasiel Puig, of, Addison Russell, ss, and Yordano Ventura, sp.

 

Keep an Eye on: Cuban defector Yasiel Puig has all the tools to be an elite outfielder.

West Orange Panthers

825

A-

A

A-

B+

Very deep system with plenty of infielders and pitchers but somewhat lacking in outfield depth.

 

Best of the Best: Gerrit Cole, sp, Trevor May, sp, Arodys Vizcaino, sp, and Cory Seager, 3b.

 

Keep an Eye on: Arodys Vizcaino lost 2012 to Tommy John surgery but he could come back stronger than ever and he had electric stuff before the surgery.

Mad City Paddlers

805

A

A

A-

A

This system has loads of high-end talent and players that are ready to contribute at key positions.

 

Best of the Best: Will Myers, of, Mike Zunino, c, Aaron Sanchez, sp, Jared Cosart, sp, and Archie Bradley, sp.

 

Keep an Eye on: Roberto Osuna is a very young pitcher from Mexico who had a great debut in the US last year.  Terrific stuff, pitchability, and maturity may lead to the top of a rotation someday.

Emerald City Bombers

780

A

A

A-

A

Another great system with plenty of top prospects nearing the majors.

 

Best of the Best:  Francisco Lindor, ss, Matt Barnes, sp, Carlos Correa, ss, James Paxton sp, and Mike Olt, 1b.

 

Keep an Eye on: James Paxton possesses a nasty arsenal that produces very high strikeout rates.  With even a slight improvement in control, he could become an ace.

Houston Oil Barons

770

A-

A

A

B+

Loaded with top-tier young talent, including several amateurs taken in this year’s TBBL draft.   Don’t be fooled by this team’s score, it reflects the relative youth of the system more than anything else.

 

Best of the Best: Mark Appel, sp, Byron Buxton, of, Bubba Starling, of, and Brian Goodwin, of.

 

Keep an Eye on: Kevin Gausman, sp, has been overshadowed by fellow Oriole prospect Dylan Bundy but his stuff is nearly as good.  If he finds a little more consistency, he could be an ace.

California Volcanoes

755

A-

A-

A-

A-

Ho-hum, just another great minor league system in this league.  If you’ve been wondering why the draft seems to be getting shallower every year, it’s because so many teams are drafting top prospects at younger and younger ages.  This is just one of several teams that dipped into the high school ranks for at least one draft pick this year.

 

Best of the Best:  Oscar Taveras, of,  Jose Fernandez, sp, Taylor Guerrieri, sp, and Kaleb Cowart, 3b.

 

Keep an Eye on: Taylor Guerrieri dominated low-A in his first year in the league.  Nasty sinking FB that produces lots of swings and misses and a high GB rate to boot.  That’s a rare and devastating combination.  He looks like another ace in the making to me.

Stone Mountain Confederates

750

A-

B+

A

A-

Nice catching and starting pitching depth in this system.  D’Arnaud looks ready to move quickly into the first division of catchers in the league.

 

Best of the Best: Travis D’Arnaud, c and JR Graham, sp.

 

Keep an Eye on: Tyler Austin looks like one of those players who contribute in so many consistent ways that he ends up undervalued.

Colorado Gladiators

725

B+

B+

A

B

Another team that made a big investment in amateur players in this year’s TBBL draft.  If Austin Meadows, of, and Ryne Stanek, sp, develop as expected, this team may also move up the ranks quickly.

 

Best of the Best: Max Fried, sp, and Alberto Almora, of.

 

Keep an Eye on: Dan Vogelbach, 1b, has the huge power potential you would expect from a man this size but he also makes pretty consistent contact.  Lack of speed limits his future to 1b but he has more than enough bat for the position.

Jersey Damage, Inc.

640

B+

A-

B

A

Elite talent at premium positions almost makes up for a slightly shallower system than the elite systems in the league.

 

Best of the Best: Gary Sanchez, c, Xander Bogaerts, ss, and Taijuan Walker, sp.

 

Keep an Eye on: Trevor Story made great strides last year and while not as flashy as some of the other elite ss prospects in the league, he has the full package of skills you want in a ss, including decent power potential.

Philadelphia Smackdown

560

B

B+

B-

B+

Not as deep as the top systems but the crown jewel is top prospect, Jurickson Profar, ss.  Yet another system investing heavily in amateurs in this year’s draft, selecting Kris Bryant, 3b, and Austin Wilson, of.

 

Best of the Best: Jurisckson Profar, ss, Lucas Giolito, sp, and Adalberto Mondesi, ss.

 

Keep an Eye on: Adalberto Mondesi, ss, the very young son of former MLB outfielder Raul Mondesi, had an impressive debut and has an extremely exciting skill set with plenty of room for growth.  Given the brick-like physique of his father, I’ll be shocked if he sticks at shortstop, but he probably has the bat to play anywhere.

San Antonio Saints

495

B-

B-

B-

B-

The Saints have a fair number of high-floor prospects but not as many high-ceiling prospects as the top systems in the league.

 

Best of the Best: Josh Bell, of, and Michael Wacha, sp

 

Keep an Eye on: Stryker Trahan, c, has great power potential, not to mention one of the best names in baseball.  He also has a strong arm but will need to improve his overall catching skills to stick at the position.  If he does, he could be an elite offensive catcher.

Florida Devils

475

C+

B

C

C

FLA has several top pitching prospects but the cupboard is somewhat bare when it comes to hitters.

 

Best of the Best: Gerrit Cole, sp, and Zach Lee, sp.

 

Keep an Eye on: Chris Archer strikes me as one those slow-developing pitchers who may take a couple years longer than average to reach his full potential.  There still may be an ace in the making here.

Los Angeles Halos

470

C+

B+

C-

C

Despite the obvious mascot clash, the Halos’ system would make a nice complement for the Devils’.  The Halos have a number of top-tier hitting prospects but are thin in the pitching department.

 

Best of the Best: Kyle Zimmer, sp, Michael Choice, of, and Courtney Hawkins, of.

 

Keep an Eye on: Jorge Alfaro, c, has a plus power but can flail at times.  Solid catching skills will give him the time he needs to develop his batting skills.  Yet another potentially great catcher in the minors right now.

San Francisco Seals

445

C

C

C

C

No future superstars here but several potential regulars.

 

Best of the Best: Jose Iglesias, ss, and Chris Withrow, sp.

 

Keep an Eye on: Neftali Soto, 1b, has huge power potential but a lack of plate discipline and limited defensive options cloud his future.  Currently blocked in MLB by Joey Votto. 

Kentucky Wildcats

435

C

B-

C-

C

Nice collection of mid-level talent and a potential ace in Trevor Bauer.

 

Best of the Best: Trevor Bauer, sp, and Dorsys Paulino, ss.

 

Keep an Eye on: Robert Stephenson, sp, has terrific stuff and a developing repertoire of pitches.  If he continues developing his off-speed offerings and stays healthy, he could be a top-of-the-rotation starter.

Fort Wayne Komets

405

C

B-

C

C

Shallow system with a couple of top-tier pitchers.

 

Best of the Best: Trevor Rosenthal, sp, and Jose Campos, sp.

 

Keep an Eye on: Matt Adams, 1b, has been a consistently productive player in the minors but opportunities for a full-time gig are running out.

Smith Mills Mammoths

375

C-

C-

C-

C-

Tyler Skaggs and Sonny Gray looks like solid mid-rotation starters, and Christian Colon looks to be a productive if not spectacular middle infielder.

 

Best of the Best: Tyler Skaggs, sp, and Christian Colon, ss.

 

Keep an Eye on: Yorman Rodriguez, of, has all the tools to be great but needs to find the skills to get the most out of his tools.  If he does, he could be an all-star.

Lincoln Tunnel Rats

200

NRI

     

NRI stands for “Not really interested.”

 

Keep an Eye on: Avisail Garcia arrived ahead of schedule and has an impressive set of tools but poor plate discipline could undercut his production.

Moon Raiders

160

NRI

 

 

 

NRI stands for “Not really interested.”

 

Keep an Eye on: Bruce Rondon has the stuff to close but the jury is still out if he has the makeup for the job.

Fresno Grizzlies

0

NRI

 

 

 

NRI stands for “Not really interested.”